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16/11/2012 - Indices of house prices and residential property transactions: Q3 2012

According to data collected from credit institutions,(1) nominal apartment prices are estimated to have declined on average by 11.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2012. For the first and second quarters of 2012, based on revised data, apartment prices fell at an annual rate of 9.3% and 10.2%, respectively, while for the whole of 2011 the average decline was 5.4% (Q1: -5.4%,
Q2: -5.1%, Q3: -4.7% and Q4: -6.5%) versus 4.7% in 2010.

Apartment prices by age and geographical area

More specifically, the year-on-year rate of decline in prices was 13.5% for "new" apartments, (i.e. up to 5 years old) and 10.5% for "old" apartments (i.e. over 5 years old) in the third quarter of 2012. In 2011 as a whole, based on revised data, the average annual rate of decline in the prices of "new" and "old" apartments was 4.9% and 5.7% respectively, while a similar pattern was observed in 2010 ("new": -4.2%, "old": -5.0%) and 2009 ("new": -2.0%, "old": -4.8%). However, since the first quarter of 2012, the rate of decline in prices for “new” apartments constantly increases - compared to the “old” apartments – which reflects the gradual decline in relatively greater price resilience of newly-built apartments during the current crisis.

According to data broken down by geographical area, apartment prices are estimated to have declined year-on-year in the third quarter of 2012 by 12.3% in Athens, 10.6% in Thessaloniki, 10.1% in other cities and 12.4% in other areas of Greece. In 2011 prices dropped on average year-on-year by 6.4%, 6.9%, 4.0% and 4.2% respectively, according to revised data. These figures show that in 2011 as well as in the first quarters of 2012 apartment prices registered a stronger decline in the two major urban centers, Athens and Thessaloniki, compared with other regions.

More detailed tables on house prices by geographical area (Athens, Thessaloniki, other cities and other areas), which also distinguish between “new” (up to 5 years old) and “old” (over 5 years old) apartments, are published in the “Bulletin of Conjunctural Indicators” (Tables ΙΙ.7.1 and ΙΙ.7.2), available on the Bank of Greece’s website:

http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogDocumentEn/NEW_INDEX_OF_APARTMENT_PRICES_BY_GEOGRAPHICAL_AREA.PDF

Indices of residential property transactions-appraisals (2)

Residential property transactions-appraisals conducted with Monetary Financial Institution intermediation for any reason (renegotiation of existing loans, registration of a mortgage to back non-housing loans, debt transfers from one bank to another, etc.) came to 4,948 in the third quarter of 2012, down from 6,317 and 6,356 in the first and second quarters of 2012, respectively (revised data). Year-on-year, residential property appraisals fell by 48.7% in the third quarter of 2012 (first and second quarters of 2012: -50.7% and -47.2%, respectively).Τhe number of appraisals in 2011 reached 42,520 (revised data), following a significant drop of 42.9% year-on-year (2010: 74,457).
The volume of residential property transactions-appraisals based on total square metres declined by 46.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2012 (first and second quarters of 2012: -48.5% and -46.5%, respectively), and for the whole of 2011, based on revised data, this volume declined at an average annual rate of 40.0%.

Finally, the value of residential property transactions-appraisals conducted with Monetary Financial Institution intermediation dropped by 52.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2012 (first and second quarters of 2012: -53.2% and -52.6%, respectively). In 2011, the average annual rate of change was -39.8% (revised data).

INDICES OF APARTMENT PRICES (1)

(2007=100)

 

2010

2011*

2011*

2012*

 

Q2

Q3

Q4*

Q1*

Q2*

Q3*

Ι. Summary

 Price index

93.3

88.3

89.4

87.7

84.9

82.7

80.3

77.4

 (%) change over previous year

-4.7%

-5.4%

-5.1%

-4.7%

-6.5%

-9.3%

-10.2%

-11.7%

 

II. BY AGE

   1.  New (up to 5 years old)

 Price index

96.0

91.3

92.1

91.5

87.6

84.2

82.2

79.1

 (%) change over previous year

-4.2%

-4.9%

-4.3%

-3.9%

-6.3%

-10.2%

-10.7%

-13.5%

   2.  Old (over 5 years old)

 Price index

91.7

86.4

87.7

85.3

83.3

81.7

79.1

76.4

 (%) change over previous year

-5.0%

-5.7%

-5.7%

-5.1%

-6.7%

-8.6%

-9.8%

-10.5%

 

ΙΙΙ. BY GEOGRAPHICAL AREA

   1.  Athens

 Price index

93.2

87.2

88.3

87.1

83.3

81.0

78.6

76.4

 (%) change over previous year

-3.2%

-6.4%

-6.8%

-4.4%

-8.2%

-10.0%

-11.0.%

-12.3%

   2.  Thessaloniki

 Price index

88.4

82.3

85.2

80.9

78.3

76.1

74.0

72.3

 (%) change over previous year

-7.4%

-6.9%

-4.2%

-6.4%

-9.1%

-10.3%

-13.%

-10.6%

   3.  Other cities

 Price index

93.7

90.0

90.9

89.0

87.5

85.0

82.2

80.0

 (%) change over previous year

-5.3%

-4.0%

-3.9%

-3.2%

-4.7%

-8.2%

-9.6%

-10.1%

   4.  Other areas of Greece

 Price index

95.4

91.4

92.0

90.5

88.6

86.6

84.7

79.3

 (%) change over previous year

-5.8%

-4.2%

-3.2%

-5.9%

-3.9%

-8.5%

-7.9%

12.4%

 

INDICES OF HOUSE APPRAISALS-TRANSACTIONS WITH MONETARY FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INTERMEDIATION (2)

 

2010

2011*

 2011*

2012*

 

Q2

Q3

Q4*

Q1*

Q2*

Q3*

   1.  Transactions

 Number of transactions

74,457

42,520

12,043

9,641

8,028

6,317

6,356

4,948

 (%) change over previous year

-0.2%

-42.9%

-35.6%

-38.8%

-48.6%

-50.7%

-47.2%

-48.7%

   2.  Volume of transactions (total m2)

 Volume index (2007=100)

46.7

28.0

31.5

25.4

21.9

17.2

16.9

13.5

 (%) change over previous year

-0.1%

-40.0%

-32.6%

-37.1%

-46.2%

-48.5%

-46.5%

-46.9%

   3.  Value of transactions

 Value index (2007=100)

45.0

27.1

30.6

23.8

21.2

15.4

14.5

11.4

s (%) change over previous year

-6.2%

-39.8%

-30.8%

-37.1%

-46.6%

-53.2%

-52.6%

-52.3%

* Provisional data.

Source: Bank of Greece.

(1) Bank of Greece indices of house prices and of the number and volume of residential property transactions use detailed data reported to the Bank of Greece by all credit institutions operating in Greece. These data are compiled by the Real Estate Market Analysis Section of the Bank of Greece as from 2009, under Bank of Greece Governor’s Act 2610/31.10.2008, and include banks’ appraisals of the current market value and qualitative characteristics of residential property. A total of 587,615 appraisals were reported to the Bank of Greece (by end-October 2012) (67.5% concerning apartments, 19.1% houses, 5.8% maisonettes, 5.6% building plots and 2.0% other types of property).

(2) The indices of residential property transactions are based on appraisal reports by banks’ engineers regarding the value and qualitative characteristics of residential property financed or used as collateral for loans extended by credit institutions. Part of these appraisals may not be associated with residential property transactions, but concern the renegotiation of existing loans, registration of a mortgage to back non-housing loans, debt transfers from one bank to another, etc.