"Achieving sustainable growth in Southeast Europe: Macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, socio-political support, and a sound financial system"
Bank of Greece-University of Oxford (SEESOX) Conference, 11 February 2011
Welcome address by George A. Provopoulos, Governor, Bank of Greece
Keynote address by Erik Berglöf, Chief Economist, EBRD
Recovery and Reform - Presentation
Session I: Macroeconomic policy challenges and public sector reforms in SEE countries
Continued efforts at fiscal consolidation are likely to be needed to keep fiscal deficits and public debt under control in the SEE countries, especially in light of less favourable growth prospects and the longer term effects of population ageing. To avoid undesirable effects on growth and poverty, such fiscal consolidation efforts will need to involve improvements in the effectiveness and efficiency of public spending as well as of the tax system and its administration.
Chair: Yannis S. Costopoulos, Chairman, Alpha Bank
Dubravko Mihaljek, Head of Emerging Markets, BIS
"Outlook for external financing of the public sector in Southeast Europe" - Presentation
Paul Mylonas, Chief Economist, National Bank of Greece
"SEE-5 & Turkey: Macro Challenges" - Presentation
Bob Traa, Senior Resident Representative in Greece, IMF
David Vines, Professor, Oxford University
Discussant: Emmanuel Zervoudakis, Director-Adviser, Bank of Greece
Session II: Structural reform challenges in SEE countries
To improve their growth prospects in the post-crisis environment, SEE countries will need to reorient their production towards higher value-added tradable goods. This will require measures to further improve the functioning of the labour and product markets so as to attract investment and raise productivity.
Chair: George Tavlas, Director-General, Bank of Greece
Heather Gibson, Director-Adviser, Bank of Greece
"Structural Reform, Productivity and Growth: the case of Greece" - Presentation
T. Anastasatos, Senior Economist, Eurobank EFG Group
"Structural Reform challenges in SEE countries" - Presentation
Alan Paic, Acting Head, OECD Investment Compact for SEE
"Enhancing South East Europe Competitiveness through innovation and human capital development" - Presentation
Peter Weiss, Resident Representative in Greece, DG ECFIN, European Commission
"Improving the business environment in Southeast Europe: achievements and challenges" Presentation
Discussant: Peter Sanfey, Lead Economist, EBRD
Session III: Building social/political support for reform in SEE countries
In most SEE countries, the recent economic crisis has aggravated public feelings towards governments and the state, with the rise in unemployment and falling incomes. For reforms to be sustainable, public support is essential. This will, in turn, require that the reforms be perceived to be both fair and effective, contributing to a more efficient state and leading to growth with broadly shared benefits.
Chair: Thanos Veremis, Professor, University of Athens
Georgy Ganev, Programme Director for Economic Research, Centre for Liberal Strategies, Sofia
"The many unknowns of SEE societies’ attitudes towards reforms" - Presentation
Gerald Knaus, Chairman, European Stability Initiative
Discussant: Othon Anastasakis, Director SEESOX, Oxford University
Session IV: Growth and the financial system
The role of the financial systems in SEE countries in the run-up to the financial crisis, including their contribution to growth; how the financial systems in SEE countries have weathered the crisis and the key factors explaining different country experiences; and, looking ahead, envisaged reforms to ensure that the financial systems will support sustainable growth in the SEEs.
Chair: George A. Provopoulos, Governor, Bank of Greece
Ardian Fullani, Governor, Bank of Albania
"Achieving sustainable growth in SEE: Macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, socio-political support, and a sound financial system" - Presentation
Ivan Iskrov, Governor, Bulgarian National Bank
"Growth and the Financial System: Lessons from Emerging Europe with a focus on Bulgaria"
Cristian Popa, Deputy Governor, National Bank of Romania
"Growth, Recession and the Banking System: A Before-and-After Perspective on Romania"
Dejan Šoškic, Governor, National Bank of Serbia
"The New Growth Model for Serbia: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Challenges" - Presentation
Alexey V. Ulyukaev, First Deputy Chairman, Bank of Russia
Durmu Yilmaz, Governor, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
"CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY: Growth and Financial System" - Presentation
Discussant: Max Watson, Oxford University