Assessment of cyclical systemic risks in Greece: Q1 2026
15/01/2026 - Press Releases
- Cyclical systemic risks in Greece for Q1 2026 are assessed as low and the risk environment as standard.
- The Bank of Greece maintains the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) rate for Greece unchanged at 0.5%, i.e. at the level of the target positive neutral CCyB rate, applicable from 1 October 2026.
The quarterly assessment of the intensity of cyclical systemic risks and the appropriateness of the CCyB rate for Greece takes into account the standardised credit-to-GDP gap, the buffer guide and, in particular, additional indicators for monitoring the build-up of cyclical systemic risks.
The buffer guide, as set out in Recommendation ESRB/2014/1 of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), is “zero”, as the standardised credit-to-GDP gap has remained negative since the third quarter of 2012 and, according to the latest available data, stood at -21.8 percentage points in the second quarter of 2025.
The Bank of Greece also examines a number of additional indicators in order to monitor the build-up of cyclical systemic risks relating to credit developments, private sector indebtedness, residential and commercial real estate prices, external imbalances, the banking sector, and capital markets (see the attached table “Cyclical systemic risk indicators”). The analysis of additional indicators points to emerging cyclical systemic risks in certain areas, such as credit growth to non-financial corporations, residential real estate prices and the current account, but confirms that there is no excessive credit growth in Greece. Overall, cyclical systemic risks in Greece in Q1 2026 are assessed as low and the risk environment as standard.
In this context, the Bank of Greece decided to maintain the countercyclical capital buffer rate for Greece unchanged at 0.5%, i.e. at the level of the target positive neutral CCyB rate. This rate was set under Executive Committee Act 248/1/06.10.2025 and will become applicable from 1 October 2026.
It should be noted that the Bank of Greece has adopted a framework for a positive neutral CCyB in Greece, which is activated at an early stage in the economic and financial cycle, when cyclical systemic risks are neither elevated nor subdued. For the period from 1.10.2025 to 30.09.2026, the CCyB rate that credit institutions are required to maintain is 0.25%, in accordance with Executive Committee Act 235/2/07.10.2024.
Related information:
The countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) is a macroprudential policy tool aimed at preventing the build-up of cyclical systemic risks, ensuring an appropriate level of credit growth and leverage, throughout the economic and financial cycle, as well as strengthening banking sector resilience.
More information on the countercyclical capital buffer can be found here.
Related links:
Bank of Greece Executive Committee Act 248/1/06.10.2025
Bank of Greece Executive Committee Act 235/2/07.10.2024