FISCAL POLICY, NET EXPORTS, AND THE SECTORAL COMPOSITION OF OUTPUT IN GREECE
Athanasios O. Tagkalakis
Bank of Greece
Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy shocks on net export performance and the sectoral composition of output in Greece in the post 2000 period. A reduction in government spending (or a tax hike) exerts a negative response on output which reduces import demand. A cut back in government spending boosts exports through the labour cost competitiveness channel further improving net exports. Tax hikes in particular on social security contributions and other indirect taxes reduce export performance. Although real aggregate output declines following a cut in government spending, the tradable sector output responds positively, further improving net exports.
Keywords: Fiscal policy; net exports; tradable; non-tradable
JEL Classification: E62, E24, O52, H30
Acknowledgements: I would like to thank Christian Pierdzioch, Paul J. J. Welfens, Holger C. Wolf, Jürgen Wolters, two anonymous reviewers as well as Heather Gibson and Dimitris Malliaropulos for their very useful comments. The views of the paper are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Greece. All remaining errors are mine.
Correspondence:
Athanasios O. Tagkalakis
Bank of Greece
21 El. Venizelos Av. 10250
Athens, Greece
Email: atagkalakis@bankofgreece.gr
Tel.:0030-210-3202442
Fax: 0030-210-3232025